On Thursday the 16th
of December 2021, the constituency of North Shropshire underwent a by-election.
Indeed, as I publish this, the votes are being counted and a result is expected
within the coming hours. In normal times, by-elections tend to peak the interests
of politicos and statisticians alone. But these are not normal times. Since the
2019 election - in which the Conservative party won 43.6% of the popular vote
nationally, gaining a comfortable 80 seat majority in the House of Commons with
365 Members of Parliament (MPs) elected – there have been five by-elections in
which the government’s 2019 electoral popularity was put to the test, in:
Hartlepool, Chesham and Amersham, Airdrie and Shotts, Batley and Spen, and Old
Bexley and Sidcup.
In Hartlepool, the Tories
(Conservatives) gained a seat from Labour and a 23% rise in popular vote [to
51.9%]. Chesham and Amersham saw the Liberal Democrats (LDs) gain 30.4% [to
56.7%] and steal the seat from the Conservatives, who had held it since its
creation in 1974 and saw a 19.9% decline in vote share to 35.5%. So far, one gained
one lost – parity.
In Airdrie and Shotts,
perhaps unsurprisingly, the Scottish National Party (SNP) gained popularity,
ultimately holding the seat, but not without reducing the Tory vote share by
4.7% [to 12.9%]. Batley and Spen was an interesting case. Sighted by pundits
and academics alike as meeting the criteria of a ‘Red Wall’ seat that could
indeed turn blue[1],
Labour held Batley and Spen but with a loss of 7.42% [to 35.27%], and with the
Tories losing 1.61% to make it a close win for Labour with but a razor-sharp
margin 0.85% between the two.[2] Lastly, on the 2nd
of December 2021, the by-election in Old Bexley and Sidcup saw the Tories hold the
seat with an absolute majority [51.5%] but at a 13% loss in vote share; where
Labour gained 7.4% and the LDs lost 5.3%. Additionally, across these five cases,
turnout has averaged much lower than that of a general election – something not
unusual for a by-election – at 42.04%.
Subsequently, all in
all, by-elections since the 2019 election have rendered: (a) the Tories holding
one, gaining one and losing one, (b) Labour holding one and losing one, (c) the
SNP holding Airdrie and Shotts, and lastly, (d) the LDs gaining Chesham and
Amersham. In four of the five cases, the vote share for the incumbent party declined
– also something not unusual for a by-election – as too did the governing party’s
share of the vote, even in the seat they held. In view of some predictions that
Boris Johnson’s popularity from the 2019 election would spill-over, although this
may have been the case for Hartlepool, these by-elections have not
dramatically changed the political landscape in terms of seats, and really only
revealed that these voters were, on the whole, not best pleased with either
incumbents or the governing party. Nothing ground-breaking.
North Shropshire may be
slightly different. Historically, since 2001 North Shropshire has voted en-masse
for the conservative party; averaging with 54.07% of the popular vote over the
last two decades, where Labour trail by some 28.68% behind [at 25.38%]. In
2019, North Shropshire voted for the Conservative incumbent Owen Paterson with
a healthy majority of 41% and 62.7% of the vote share. Nonetheless, Paterson resigned
after the Parliamentary Standards Committee found in October 2021 “that Mr
Paterson had breached the rule prohibiting paid advocacy, set out in paragraph
11 of the 2015 MP’s Code of Conduct”, and equally, “that Mr Paterson had
breached paragraph 13 of the 2015 MP’s Code of Conduct, on declarations of
interest, by failing to declare his interest as a paid consultant.”[3]
Following this, and even since the Old Bexley
and Sidcup by-election, a series of government ‘scandals’ has occurred, ranging
from a fine to the conservative party for not declaring party funds used to
renovate Downing Street, to the more serious flouting of COVID-19 regulations
during the 2020 Lockdowns, with a series of Christmas Parties involving the Conservatives
(be they at Downing Street or otherwise). Indeed, since the Old Bexley and
Sidcup by-election (December 2nd) Labour have overtaken the
Conservatives on the national polling landscape, with the Tories polling now
some 4% behind Labour at 34% and with that gap widening with every few days.[4]
This constituency is
what some may come to term as a ‘Blue Wall’ seat, in many ways being the
inverse of a ‘Red Wall’ seat, as described by James Kanagasooriam and Elizabeth
Simon.[5] First of all, North Shropshire
has voted for the Conservative candidate throughout the entirety of its
parliamentary life-time, with Paterson as its representative since 1997 – the year
of Labour’s Blairite landslide. Secondly, the constituency voted 59.85% in
favour of leaving the European Union during the 2016 referendum. Lastly, the
Labour party have not managed regain their constituency-level popularity of the
2001 election [35.2%], coming closest in 2017 with 31.1% but not enough to
cause worry to the Tories, who achieved 60.5% of the popular vote in the same
year. Indeed, as it stands, the Conservatives have held an average majority of
over 28%, and received an actual majority of 22,949 votes in 2019.
This constituency is
Tory through and through. However, given the results from the by-elections
mentioned above, the individual case of Paterson, and the sudden loss in
government popularity nationally, will the by-election in North Shropshire illustrate
that such ‘Blue Wall’ seats are turning away from the conservative party?
In short, it will be
found that, by all statistical likelihood, the conservatives will hold North
Shropshire, but with a marked decrease in their majority. Predicting election
outcomes is a difficult business and not one that I am going to engage with
here. This being said, I will simply provide evidence for this hypothesis by examining
and analysing the statistical probability for its case by utilising data from
past general election results in North Shropshire (2001-2019), alongside how
this compares and correlates to national polling.[6] From this point onwards,
when the results of particularly party are referred to, it should be implied
that these are in reference to results from the constituency of North Shropshire,
unless stated otherwise, to avoid any confusion with the national performance
of political parties.
Across the 2001-2019
period, the Conservatives have increased their majority with every passing election,
2017 aside. In 2001 the Conservatives won 48.6% and by 2019 this had increased
to 62.7%. Even in 2015, when the eurosceptic United Kingdom Independence Party
(UKIP) gained 12.9% of the national vote share and led to the highest level of
voter volatility seen in contemporary British elections since 1931, switching over
16% of 2010 Conservative voters to UKIP nationally, the Conservatives in North
Shropshire were able to hold their 51.5% vote share from 2010 and equally
increase their majority by one percent as UKIP took 17.6% of the vote; far
above the national average.[7] Many of these voters
switched back in 2017 after voting to leave the European Union, and although
the Conservative majority slimmed down to a still healthy 29.4% because Labour received
11.2% more than their 2015 result, the Tories gained 9% of the vote share to
achieve 60.5% in the constituency overall.[8]
Relative to the time, there
is a statistically significant positive correlation between the increasing
passage of time from 2001-2019 and the vote share the Tories receive.[9] This tells us that as time
goes forward, the probability of the Conservatives increasing their share of
the vote is statistically rather likely. Even more so than Conservative vote
share, there is a significant correlation between the trundling
of time and the increase in the Conservative’s majority.[10]
There is only one other
statistically significant trend, at least in relation to the likelihood of any
party either increasing or decreasing their share of the popular vote in North
Shropshire. This, interestingly, relates to the Green Party. Beginning the
period without a candidate on the ballot, since 2010 the Green Party has
averaged at 3.2% of the vote, achieving their highest in the ‘election of volatility’
(2015) where they won 4.9% of the vote share and have since fallen to 3.1% and
3.2% in the pair of consequent elections. Although not a particularly strong
correlation with time, this is statistically significant, indicating that we
should expect the Green Party to remain around the 3-5% mark in elections to
come.[11]
The final trend I wish
to speak of is turnout. 2001 aside, North Shropshire has mirrored the average
trend in national turnout. Indeed, North Shropshire sits just above the
national average. Between 2001 and 2019, the national average turnout at
general elections was 64.7% and the constituency average in the same time
period was 65.63%; just a little higher, although not so high it breaks even
one standard deviation from the national mean.[12] This being said, the
higher the turnout the greater the legitimacy of the election itself. By 2017, the
turnout in North Shropshire had indeed broken the barrier of one standard
deviation from both the national and constituency mean for the period[13], achieving a constituency
wide turnout of 69% before following the national trend and falling ever so
slightly in 2019, to an above average 67.9%.
What we can see is a statistically
significant positive correlation between time and turnout.[14] As the years increase so
too does turnout, albeit not at quite a significant a correlation as on the
national level.[15]
Sadly, we should not expect this positive trend to continue into this by-election.
As has been shown, North Shropshire has an above average turnout, but not by
enough that we should expect general election standards of turnout. To be sure,
North Shropshire is only just consistently higher than the average turnout, and
as a result it would be sensible to suggest that turnout will be higher than
the average turnout for by-elections since 2019; slightly higher than 42.04%.
How should we expect this
to correlate to the conservative vote share, however? Simply put, turnout and
conservative vote share are in a statistically important relationship with one
another. The two variables are in a fairly strong positive correlation with one
another, where Tory vote share mirrors turnout
variation to some extent.[16] With this in mind, as we
should expect turnout to decrease by some margin, statistically, so too should we
expect the Conservative party’s vote share to do so.
How can we attempt to
narrow down these margins however? How can we get a feel for what may,
statistically, be likely to occur? One of the greatest problems with
by-elections is that they are exactly that – by-elections. The greatest risk
that they run is their removal from the context of a general election. Whereas general
elections present the notion of a potential change in government, a by-election
only presents a potential change in representative. This in itself can drive
down turnout or become a simple referendum on the governing party, as opposed
to an assessment of an incumbent or candidate’s capability to represent the issues
of constituents. Equally, North Shropshire has yet to hold a by-election since
its modern formation in 1983 out of the Oswestry and Wrekin constituencies.
This means that there is no past data to draw from.
Although thoroughly unlikely,
for all we know this by-election will yield a record turnout in which the
conservatives gain not a single vote – a probability matched only perhaps in
the prospect of Stoke City winning the Premier League at the end of the 2022-23
season. Apologies to all Stoke City supporters for such a tasteless comparison.
Thus, returning to the point at hand, what is a variable that we can measure that yields a high correlative predictability in relation to past general
elections in North Shropshire? The answer, perhaps oddly, is national polling
data.
When analysis is
undertaken focussing on correlations between partisan results in North
Shropshire and national poling data provided by Ipsos Mori – the final poll before
an election – there is a strong, and exceptionally statistically significant,
correlation between the two, especially as far as the conservative party’s
results are concerned.[17] Indeed, the same can be
said for all three of the major parties.[18] This tells us that the
national polling provided by Ipsos Mori mirrors rather neatly the ebb and flow
of how North Shropshire votes, allowing us to use this as a guide for a
by-election such as this. The only problem however concerns the differences
between the national vote share of the parties predicted by Ipsos Mori before
an election and the mirrored results in North Shropshire.
Broadly speaking, although
almost precisely mirroring the statistical trend of Ipsos Mori’s national poll,
there are of course outcome differentiations for each party in relation to such
polling. The conservatives poll an average of 16.9% above the national average
awarded by Ipsos Mori across the period of analysis (2001-2019). Labour, however,
underperform at -10.62%, the LDs at -3.38%, the Greens at -0.13%, and UKIP at
-0.1%. Thus, by adjusting the most recent Ipsos Mori poll by these averages, we
may indeed hit upon the rough ‘ball-park’ figures to expect come Friday the 17th
of December – at least if North Shropshire continues to follow the mirrored
statistical trend of national polling as closely as it has done for the past
two decades.
On December 13th,
some three days before the election but after the exposure of scandals that have
been believed will affect the outcome of the election, Ipsos Mori revealed its
most recent poll on national voting.[19] This returned the Tories polling
at 34%, Labour at 39%, the LDs at 11%, the Greens at 7% and UKIP at 1%. If we
adjust these results using the average difference from such polls in the
2001-2019 period, we get the following: The Conservatives winning with
50.9% [a reduction in 11.8% of the vote share], Labour coming second with
28.38% [increasing their share of the vote by 6.28%], the LDs decreasing
their share by 2.38% to 7.62% of the total vote, the Greens massively
increasing their share to 6.87% from 3.2%, and the rest returned to the other
parties.
There are both caveats and
evidence to support this. As discussed above, we should expect a rather large decrease
in turnout, given the fact that this is a by-election and that the evidence
from by-elections since 2019 would support this rather well-known and
non-radical hypothesis that fewer people turnout to vote in by-elections than
general elections. So, we should expect turnout to drop.
Equally, it was discussed earlier that there
is a strong and significant relation between turnout and conservative vote
share, supporting the claim that by mirroring and adjusting Ipsos Mori national
polling data would indeed reveal a decrease in the percentage of votes gained
by the Conservatives – this we see under such a model. The problem here is the
extent to which turnout will drop, a variable that even the most gifted of
political scientists cannot correctly predict. Indeed, with the potential of
grey, foggy, overcast and cold weather, not to mention fears of record high
COVID-19 infections and the simple fact that this is a by-election, there
really is no way to tell who will turnout and who will not; who will be
bothered to take time out of their day to go to their polling station and who
will not.
Additionally, there is
always the potential for oppositional voters to turnout when incumbent party
supporters do not feel the pressure or will to exercise their democratic rights.
A by-election in this context could in-fact decouple the strong correlation
between Tory support and turnout variation. Without any past by-election data
for the constituency, we can only follow the statistical probabilities, which,
naturally, cannot account for all changes in human behaviour – such as the way
we respond to rain or pacts between parties not to split votes. Although the
Labour party and Liberal Democrats have indeed agreed not to campaign against
one another, neither party has stood their candidate down to encourage tactical
voting.[20] Nonetheless, behind all
of this there are a number of human behaviours that could decouple every single
one of the correlations I have laid out here, not to mention the sheer number of
new parties standing on the ballot. Therefore, argumentation against such a ‘prediction’
are founded, but the statistical probability that such decoupling will occur is
slim; slim but not impossible, just improbable.
In conclusion, overall,
there is nothing to suggest that polling data of this sort will in any way be accurate
to North Shropshire in 2021. My claim is not that the Ipsos Mori poll can
reveal to us what the election results will be, but that, from the 2001
election until this point, North Shropshire has greatly and rather significantly
mirrored this particular national poll, and as such, can be used as a rough
indicator or banister for what the election result may entail – given the
statistical probability of such a continued correlation. The statistical
likelihood of trends continuing from the period we have focussed on (2001-2019)
is reasonable, and such trends would equally support the outcome of tracing
Ipsos Mori’s national polling data the way I have done. Therefore, all in all, by
using such a method of averages and in the likelihood that the significant
correlations we have seen hold, statistical probability states that we can expect
results to roughly cluster in the following manner:
Conservative - 50.9%
Labour - 28.38%
Liberal Democrats – 7.62%
Greens – 6.87%
Other – 6.23%
Let’s see what North Shropshire
decides.
[1] A ‘Red Wall’ seat may be defined
as a constituency that: (a) Has had a significant section of the electorate
vote ‘leave’ in the 2016 European Union referendum (greater than 55 per cent); (b)
Has had a substantial minority Conservative vote in recent elections (where conservative
vote share was greater than 25% in 2017); (c) Has seen this minority vote growing
ever more threatening to Labour (where the conservative swing was greater than 5%
from 2010 to 2017); (d) Has had a
residual below the 75th percentile. See: Kanagasooriam J, Simon E.
(2021) Red Wall: The Definitive Description. Political Insight. 12(3): 8-11,
p. 10-11.
[2] The loss in both parties is more
than likely explained by George Galloway’s ‘Workers Party’, who gained a strong
21.92% of the popular vote [8,264 votes], and the inclusion of twelve other parties
that were not on the ballot in 2019.
[3] UK Parliament (2021, Oct. 26th)
Committee on Standards publish report on the conduct of Rt Hon Owen Paterson MP.
committees.parliament.uk. Available at: https://committees.parliament.uk/committee/290/committee-on-sta
ndards/news/158246/committee-on-standards-publish-report-on-the-conduct-of-rt-hon-owen-paterson-mp/.
[4] Politico (2021, Dec. 15th)
National Parliament Voting Intention. politico.eu. Available at: https://www.politico.
eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/.
[5] Kanagasooriam J, Simon E. (2021)
Red Wall: The Definitive Description. Political Insight. 12(3): 8-11, p.
10.
[6] 2001 has been chosen for a rounded
two-decade view of the constituency’s electoral trends.
[7] Fieldhouse, E., Green, J., Evans,
G., Mellon, J., Prosser, C., Schmitt, H., and Van Der Eijk, C. (2020) Electoral
Shocks: The Volatile Voter in a Turbulent World. Oxford: OUP. Figures 2.3,
2.5 and 5.11.
[8] Fieldhouse, E., Evans, G., Green,
J., Mellon, J. and Prosser, C. (2021) Volatility, Realignment and Electoral
Shocks: Brexit and the UK General Election of 2019. Available at SSRN: http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.37644
77.
[9] n = 6, μ = 54.067, σ
= 5.461, R = 0.8530, p = 0.0308
[10] n = 6, μ = 28.217, σ
= 8.285, R = 0.9067, p = 0.0127
[11] n = 4, μ = 3.2, σ
= 1.168, R = 0.499, p = 0.0264
[12] σ = 3.306
[13] σ = 2.644
[14] n = 6, μ = 65.633, σ
= 2.644, R = 0.9056, p = 0.0129
[15] n = 6, μ = 64.733, σ
= 3.306, R = 0.9673, p = 0.0016
[18] Labour: R = 0.8684, p = 0.024838; LDs: R = 0.9891, p = 0.000181
[19] Ipsos Mori (2021, Dec. 13) Keir
Starmer leads Boris Johnson on ‘most capable PM’ by 13 points. ipsos.com.
Available at: https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/keir-starmer-leads-boris-johnson-most-capable-pm-13-po
ints.
[20] Parker, G., Cameron-Chileshe, J.
and Payne, S. (2021, Dec. 2) Labour and Lib Dems forge informal by-election
pact to exploit sleaze scandal. ft.com. Available at: https://www.ft.com/content/3829c28d-997c-4b8b-a2ca-fd3f
b8977f81.